Leiter’s early 2026 surge puts Texas rotation on notice
Two starts can’t tell you the whole story.
Still, Jack Leiter’s start to 2026 is loud enough that people are already using the word “breakout.”
Continued improvement has basically been the theme of the Rangers right-hander’s Major League career so far. After a poor debut campaign in 2024, Leiter found his footing early in 2025—and then made another leap after last season’s All-Star break.
And now? Even with only two outings to look at, he’s already posted 17 strikeouts in just 11 innings, pitching to a 2.45 ERA in his first two outings of 2026.
The immediate question is whether it keeps going.
Leiter will get a real barometer on Saturday in Los Angeles, when he’s scheduled to face the Dodgers at 9:10 p.m. ET. If he can pass that test, he could be on the way to something special as part of a talented Texas rotation. What really stands out is how quickly the pieces of his game are coming together—especially the movement.
In 2026, Leiter is seeing considerably more movement on each of his five principal pitches. Four of those five offerings have seen improvements in both horizontal and vertical movement compared to pitches thrown at similar velocities and release points. His breaking pitches are where the biggest leaps show up.
The changes are specific. His slider has jumped from +0.7 inches of vertical drop in 2025 to +2.9 inches in 2026. His curveball went from -0.4 inches of vertical drop in 2025 to +2.5 inches in 2026.
He’s also throwing 13 cutters through just two starts, and early results have been encouraging. Opposing hitters are 1-for-5 against the pitch with a pair of strikeouts.
If Leiter keeps finding success with that new offering, it would strengthen what’s now a six-pitch arsenal. During Spring Training, he explained to MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry, “I think it kind of fits what I was trying to accomplish with going deeper into games and throwing more innings this year.”
The strikeouts have followed. After his first two outings against the Orioles and Reds, Leiter has a 45.3% whiff rate that ranks second in all of MLB (min. 50 swings). The sample size is small, sure—but the swing-and-miss shows up across practically every pitch.
By pitch type in 2026, the whiff rates are stark: Curveball 75% (3 whiffs / 4 swings); Slider 60% (9 whiffs / 15 swings); Changeup 48.4% (15 whiffs / 31 swings); Four-seam fastball 42.9% (9 whiffs / 21 swings); Cutter 37.5% (3 whiffs / 8 swings); and Sinker 0% (0 whiffs / 7 swings).
That sinker is his rough spot. Leiter’s lone home run allowed this season—hit by Gunnar Henderson on March 30—came on the two-seamer. But aside from that, most of the rest of his repertoire has avoided damage.
Hitters are 1-for-11 with six strikeouts on his slider, and his curve and new cutter have been difficult to square up as well.
The whiff rate overall is also a major jump from where he was a year ago. Leiter’s overall whiff rate is WAY up from a 24.3% mark in 2025, which ranked in the 43rd percentile of Major League pitchers. So far, his 21% spike in whiff rate is the fifth-biggest increase of any qualifying pitcher, year over year.
Still, strikeouts aren’t the only thing that has changed.
Walks were a major issue for Leiter in his first two Major League seasons, and that’s where 2026 has started to look different. In 2024, he issued 17 free passes in just 35 2/3 innings and posted an 8.83 ERA in nine games (six starts). In 2025, he walked 67 batters—the sixth most in the American League.
So far this season, Leiter has issued just two walks in 11 innings, cutting what had been a 10.3% walk rate from his first two years down to 4.5% in 2026 (85th percentile).
Oddly, that improvement is happening even though he’s throwing fewer strikes than before. Early on, Leiter is running a career-low 44.1% zone rate. The swing-and-miss seems to be doing some of the heavy lifting—hitters are chasing more out of the zone and whiffing at a much higher rate.
Still, the timing raises questions: can he keep it up once the lineup familiarity and higher-end matchups arrive?
Pretty much everything has worked for Leiter in 2026 so far.